{
  "audited_at_utc": "2026-10-03T23:02:24.668218+00:00",
  "status": "bounded_source_validation_passed_sampling_tail_miss_identified",
  "network_scope": "One block, two read-only Polygon RPC providers, two methods per provider. No SQD requests or rescans.",
  "november_exact": {
    "transactions": 8004832,
    "fees_POL_exact": "542534.950750193875827301",
    "fees_USD_daily_marks": "200530.8785335704769954455777713401698616"
  },
  "highest_fee_day": {
    "date": "2024-11-06",
    "fees_POL_exact": "161984.849175395309198572",
    "share_of_month_native_fees": 0.2985703482354633,
    "transactions": 421270,
    "gas_weighted_effective_gas_price_gwei": 1061.2284655571675
  },
  "highest_fee_checkpoint": {
    "path": "evidence/census/sqd/checkpoints/2024-11/0063939674-0063941445.json.gz",
    "first_block": 63939674,
    "last_block": 63941445,
    "first_time_utc": "2024-11-06T03:41:51+00:00",
    "last_time_utc": "2024-11-06T04:44:35+00:00",
    "fees_POL_exact": "51357.109885787220655456",
    "gas_weighted_effective_gas_price_gwei": 3144.075350419826,
    "share_of_month_native_fees": 0.09466138506795337
  },
  "previous_sample": {
    "sampled_blocks": 120,
    "monthly_population_blocks": 1199408,
    "recomputed_month_estimate_POL": "335698.3223887514018406382666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666667",
    "old_bootstrap95_POL_interval": [
      262415.6923889956,
      418685.2625038497
    ],
    "old_bootstrap95_USD_interval": [
      107560.83069597583,
      168100.04505722134
    ],
    "November6_sampled_blocks": [
      {
        "block_number": 63954752,
        "time_utc": "2024-11-06T12:36:36+00:00",
        "attributed_transactions": 8
      }
    ],
    "sampled_blocks_inside_highest_fee_checkpoint": [],
    "November6_contribution_to_monthly_estimator_POL": "3291.2269133884994964992",
    "share_of_total_estimation_shortfall_from_November6_component": 0.7672413900728123,
    "actual_native_fees_above_old_point_estimate_fraction": 0.6161384033427424
  },
  "bounded_RPC_validation": {
    "all_selected_receipt_fields_and_logs_match_between_providers": true,
    "header_matches_retained_SQD_checkpoint_first_header": true,
    "providers": {
      "drpc": {
        "url": "https://polygon.drpc.org",
        "block_number": 63939674,
        "block_hash": "0xb4591ae12f6f62ff815ba8175f9d79a2c8a5ca1f0da2aa602988016e83679d27",
        "timestamp_utc": "2024-11-06T03:41:51+00:00",
        "all_block_receipts": 161,
        "all_receipt_gas_equals_header_gas": true,
        "attributed_union_transactions": 104,
        "direct_transactions": 92,
        "attributed_gas_used": 20472760,
        "attributed_fees_wei_exact": "62032779239477440160",
        "attributed_fees_POL_exact": "62.03277923947744016",
        "gas_weighted_effective_gas_price_gwei": 3030.0154566105125,
        "minimum_selected_gas_price_gwei": 2646.0,
        "maximum_selected_gas_price_gwei": 4560.0,
        "included_failed_selected": 0,
        "source_file": "evidence/census/november-high-fee-block-drpc.json",
        "response_file_sha256": "0aa4c909eb9f8c4c827e73e7c837ef8d02ee891f361f79eb75b86c9bbe4b84dc"
      },
      "publicnode": {
        "url": "https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com",
        "block_number": 63939674,
        "block_hash": "0xb4591ae12f6f62ff815ba8175f9d79a2c8a5ca1f0da2aa602988016e83679d27",
        "timestamp_utc": "2024-11-06T03:41:51+00:00",
        "all_block_receipts": 161,
        "all_receipt_gas_equals_header_gas": true,
        "attributed_union_transactions": 104,
        "direct_transactions": 92,
        "attributed_gas_used": 20472760,
        "attributed_fees_wei_exact": "62032779239477440160",
        "attributed_fees_POL_exact": "62.03277923947744016",
        "gas_weighted_effective_gas_price_gwei": 3030.0154566105125,
        "minimum_selected_gas_price_gwei": 2646.0,
        "maximum_selected_gas_price_gwei": 4560.0,
        "included_failed_selected": 0,
        "source_file": "evidence/census/november-high-fee-block-publicnode.json",
        "response_file_sha256": "2c93aada47dff6bd675b39fbc9997a10377e05a6d28e032255400089a1640dca"
      }
    }
  },
  "interpretation": [
    "The independently fetched high-fee block confirms real multi-thousand-gwei transaction prices in the largest retained fee interval. Two RPC providers agree on all receipt keys relevant to attribution and fees.",
    "The previous120-block sample captured one November6 block at12:36UTC, outside the03:41\u201304:44UTC maximum-fee checkpoint. Its retained receipts therefore missed the major intraday fee tail.",
    "November6 accounts for about76.7% of the native-fee shortfall between the old monthly estimator and the census when decomposed by each sampled day contribution. This explains most, not all, of the discrepancy.",
    "Bootstrap resampling of the observed blocks could not reliably represent the unobserved tail; the old interval missed the now-observed census total and should not be used as a substitute for these exact monthly totals.",
    "This bounded block check validates source pricing and a retained checkpoint boundary, not every transaction in that checkpoint or the entire month. Whole-month arithmetic is separately reconciled from retained checkpoint reductions.",
    "No causal claim about the election or congestion mechanism is established by this audit."
  ],
  "explorer_block_url": "https://polygonscan.com/block/63939674",
  "reproduce": "python3 evidence/census/november_tail_audit.py"
}